Stocks have
tanked this week the world over as American Economic Depression
Denial (AEDD) has transitorily subsided and Standard and Poor’s
downgraded U.S. Government debt. An historic move that naturally sent
everyone into a feeding frenzy...buying...uhhh...well, U.S. Government
debt.
Wait, what did they buy? That’s right.
Imagine the political
pressure S&P must have faced not to do this. Yet, they still felt
the need to drop the U.S. from the AAA club.
This is the same agency
that couldn’t stomach issuing any type of warning regarding the real
estate market pre-2008 and just now downgraded Fannie and Freddie. It’s
the equivalent of a doctor informing his chemotherapy patient that it
might be prudent to give up smoking.
Despite the
seemingly counter-intuitive nature of this reaction, it’s actually quite
obvious why Treasuries are still appealing. Everyone knows that QE3 is
imminent. Also, China and other nations with trade surpluses as well as
numerous foreign central banks are basically forced into them.
The
question is: What do we do when every option for dealing with this
deflationary nightmare is both unpalatable and unpredictable?
Europe and
most of the world are currently facing the same economic vortex that
we are. Massive debts based on an infinite growth paradigm that is
unsustainable and collapsing. Any option requires disruptions in basic
necessities reaching those who require them, on a massive scale. The
economic systems meant to facilitate transactions involving energy,
food, shelter and currencies are breaking down. The CBOE volatility
index (VIX) suggests that market fear is around the September 2008
level. Gold is now at around $1720 per ounce. Treasuries remain poised
for Bernanke, who as we speak, is scouring his tool shed for that last
nail, to do his traditional Danse Macabre.
Unemployment is an
abomination and the recent farce regarding the debt ceiling is an
undeniable indication that our government is in complete crisis. Yet,
there are still pundits and all other manner of vegetable, animal and
mineral debating nugatory hyperbole.
Right vs. left,
austerity vs. spending, deflation vs. inflation, hawkish/dovish, Keynes
vs. Hayek, Greenspan vs. himself, and on and on it goes.... The euro
vs. the dollar and to peg or not to peg. Denial, my friends... Denial.
None of this means anything except in hindsight.
Anyone who doubts that
the trajectory we are on could in no way be stopped by any sort of
policy is suffering from chronic AEDD. Austerity? Bernanke is already
hinting at QE3, and unemployment is only 9.1% (of course, unless you
look at a real employment statistic like U6 for example, which is at
16%).
Inflation? Well, possibly price inflation and/or hyperinflation
with the right set of circumstances. Who cares? We are still left with
the same problem of a broken economic system that won’t be fixed until
resources have some relationship with actual supply and demand --
because, as of now, the global marketplace is breaking. There are
pockets of balance but it is failing and taking much of society down
with it. Hence, the riots and protests all over the world.
Accelerating this
collapse is probably the best option we have. That’s why the austerity
and balanced budget crowd are really just arguing about what polish to
use on the brass of the titanic. If a heroin addict found out he had a
week to live, why ask him to kick cold turkey? It’s too late. Bring on
the QE. Cash for clunkers, why not? Give away underwater mortgages....
C’est la vie. Sure, these are dumb tactics but who cares? Let’s party.
You want to kick old ladies out of their HUD programs. Why? It’s not
going to save the economy. Balance the budget? Okay, go for it. Let’s
see how that works out, Sisyphus.
Force China to let the Yuan appreciate
or OPEC to increase the supply of oil... Denial, my
friends... Denial.
Yeah, we all know to buy physical
gold and to keep our faith in the validity of the silver market. We all
know how to play QE and to buy farmable land. However, as the “Black
Swans” continue swarming the global marketplace at
an ever-increasing rate, the fact is that tangible physical realities
are being ignored by most of us informed “collapsists.”
As S&P plays
games with illusory downgrades, oil and drinkable water are
disappearing. Crops are having strangely disastrous seasons. As many are
flooding ETF’s with all the irrational exuberance of a rabid dog,
prisoners, the elderly, the mentally ill and many less expecting victims
are about to find themselves homeless while wandering around
neighborhoods of vacant McMansions.
Rearranging tax codes
and regulations will not prevent this. There is only one cure for AEDD
and it’s coming soon. Let’s all help to facilitate this inevitable
conclusion as delaying it will only make it worse.
Josh Hiken,
a former stockbroker, is a writer, commentator and musician who lives
in Southern California. This is the sixth article in the "Ancient
America" series. He can be reached at jhiken@hotmail.com.
Josh Hiken’s blog is at:
http://ancientamericanet.blogspot.com/
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August 8, 2011