Take the economy. We are told almost every day that unemployment in
the US is 9.6%, yet this is simply a fraud. The unemployment figure
being reported excludes many people who are clearly unemployed--notably
“discouraged” workers who have given up looking for jobs because the
effort is pointless, workers who would like to work but can’t find jobs,
and workers who hold part-time jobs, but want full-time work. If we
add these people to the total, America’s unemployment rate today is over
17%, which is one-in-six working-age people, not the one-in-ten that
you get using the more restrictive methodology that gets all the media
attention. Some experts say that the actual unemployment in the US is
now 22%.
It wouldn’t be a problem if, when news organizations
reported the 9.6% figure, they also reported the more inclusive number,
but it never happens. That leaves Americans who have jobs thinking
things are much better than they really are. The folks who are
unemployed, or who have people in their families who are unemployed,
know the real picture, but they are, of course, in the minority, and
more often than not, they are at the lower income levels, which
politicians and the media don’t care much about. Thinking they are part
of that smaller number can also work to make the unemployed feel like
the problem is with them, not the system, and yet obviously, with six
workers looking for every job opening, and with over 20 million people
jobless, and the economy adding only 60,000 net new jobs a month, nobody
should be blaming him or herself for being unemployed!
There is also a misreporting process when it comes to
another statistic--the weekly number of new jobless claims at
unemployment offices.
The latest number, 434,000 new unemployment claims for last week,
was hailed in the media as “good news” because it is, as AP noted in its
report, “the second lowest number of claims for this year,” and was
below the average for the year. But what was that average? 450,000.
That is, we are supposed to consider it good news that
this past week, 16,000 fewer workers than average went to file a new
unemployment claim. AP in its headline actually called the decline a
"sharp drop"! Only well down in their story, by economics writer
Christopher S. Rugaber, is it even mentioned that the official
unemployment rate for October actually rose by a tenth of a percent to 9.7%.
Note that we’re talking about 16,000 people out a pool of some 14.7 million.
That is, we’re talking about a tenth of one percent of the total number
of jobless workers. It’s also 16,000 out of a total of 8.8 million who
are currently collecting unemployment, which represents only about 0.2%
of that total. The other thing that generally gets left out is that the
weekly total is frequently volatile, depending as it does on seasonal
factors and also on individual group layoffs. If a school district lays
off 500 teachers, or a big factory closes and lays off 1000 workers,
obviously that can have a huge impact on the overall figure. This is why
it makes more sense to look at trends. Even the four-week moving
average for new unemployment claims makes more sense to look at than the
weekly average. And the current four-week moving average only showed a
drop of 5500 claims, with the average weekly new claims falling to
453,250 from a prior 458,750. That, at 1.19%, is an insignificant
number.
But so ingrained has this nonsense become that when the
weekly unemployment figure was announced, the stockmarket took a quick
jump, rising briefly more than 50%, as if things were turning around
finally!
A much more important statistic for people to be hearing
about is the number of people who are receiving emergency extended
unemployment benefits, which is currently 4.7 million, or more than half
of all those collecting unemployment benefit checks. That number fell
last week by about 126,000, but according to the federal Bureau of Labor
Statistics, most of those were not people who found work, but were
people whose extended benefits, which in most states allow people to
receive an unemployment check for a total of 99 weeks, had run out! Did
you get that: 4.7 million working-age Americans eligible for
unemployment have been out of work for two years now, and those who've
lost their benefits have been jobless even longer. These are jobs that
probably aren't coming back.
That’s news you probably aren’t hearing or reading in the feel-good mainstream media.
Nor do the normal employment/unemployment reports mention that half
of workers who are unemployed don’t even qualify for unemployment
benefits (for example workers who are classified as "independent
contractors"), or that not all workers whose ordinary unemployment
benefits expire are eligible for extended benefits. (Only those in
states whose official unemployment rate is greater than 8.6% offer
extended benefits, meaning if you are unemployed in a state where the
rate is 8.5%, you’re out of luck.) And not all states even offer
extended benefits.
Instead we get happy news: Unemployment compensation filings are
down. The number of people collecting long-term unemployment benefits is
down. Unemployment is “only” 9.6% of the workforce.
In China, people would laugh wryly at the articles in the paper, or
crack cynical jokes about the cheerful newscasters on their TVs.
In America, we assume what we’re reading and hearing is the truth, and we are cheered by the news.
How else to explain the apparent public demand for cuts in
government spending to create jobs at a time of record joblessness and
hardship that are running at levels not seen since the 1930s?