by Dave Lindorff
Watching the slow-motion march to war against Iran is a bit like watching a terminal cancer patient in a hospice. We know how it's going to end. We know it's going to be tragic and ugly. But we are powerless to stop it.
There is a difference of course.
For the cancer patient, there really is no alternative.
For us, there is an alternative to the catastrophe which President Bush and his regent, Dick Cheney, are preparing for us all.
We could rise up as a nation and demand that our elected representatives pass a Boland-type amendment banning any use of the military in Iraq. We could demand that a resolution be passed revoking the 2002 Authorization for Use of Military Force against Iraq. We could demand the revocation of the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force which the president has improperly cited as giving him extra-Constitutional powers. And we could demand that Congress tell the president and vice president that if they attack Iran without explicit congressional authorization they will both be immediately impeached.
The votes could be there for such an action, as even some
Republicans are clearly opposed to this insanity, but the courage to
call the president’s hand and lay down the cards is not.
And so the horrible march to disaster continues.
The cynicism of this administration is beyond belief. We have the
supposedly "straight talking" defense secretary Robert Gates telling
Congress that there is no plan "at the moment" to attack Iran--even as
he sends two aircraft carrier battle groups into the Persian Gulf and
stockpiles Patriot anti-missile batteries in the region (of what use
are carriers and anti-missile rockets in a counter-insurgency in
Iraq?). We have the president authorizing a blatantly illegal and
clearly provocative attack on an Iranian consulate in Irbil, Iraq, and
violating international law by arresting six people in that raid.
Let's be clear. An attack on Iran, which poses no
immediate or imminent threat to the United States, would be the most
heinous of international war crimes--a "crime against peace" violating
the UN Charter and the Nuremburg Charter. It would also be a strategic
disaster that would dwarf even the president’s collassal strategic
blunder in invading Iraq.
There are no more troops left to fight in Iran, so all the
U.S. could hope to do would be to bomb that country. But bombing that
country would do nothing to stop Iran from retaliating in myriad ways
that could bring the U.S. to its knees.
Take sappers. Iraq, which has a sophisticated and
well-equipped espionage apparatus, could set out on a campaign of
sabatoge, blowing up U.S. chemical plants, petrochemical refining and
storage facilities, and power plants. Since these are all known to be
on the target list of U.S. bombers in Iran, Iran would be well within
its rights retaliating in kind inside U.S. borders. If the U.S. were to
follow its usual criminal practice of also attacking Iraqi hospitals
and other civilian targets, Iraqis could and likely would follow suit.
I wouldn't be surprised, given how long the administration has been
talking about attacking Iran, if its military strategists hadn’t
already smuggled bombs into place in shipping containers, ready to blow
if we attack.
Feeling safer?
Iran has other options
too, to hurt us. The Shia militias in Iraq, which have largely ignored
U.S. forces unless harassed, are tight with the Iranians, having
received shelter and support from Iran during Hussein's brutal rule,
and sharing, as they do, a common religion. If Iran comes under attack,
it is hard to believe that the Iraqi militias will now turn their
substantial firepower on outnumbered US forces in Iraq.
When you think of it, attacking Iran would be a wonderful
way of doing what the U.S. claims it has been wanting to do for several
years now: uniting the Sunni and Shia forces in Iraq and ending their
fratricidal conflict. The only problem is that they will be joining
hands the better to attack U.S. troops! How clever this administration
is!
And then there's the economic costs of an Iran War. Here
Iran really has to do nothing, though it could make things all the
worse by using one of its high-tech anti-ship missiles to sink an
American naval vessel or even just a civilian tanker in the gulf. Even
without such an action, an invasion of Iran would lead to a shutdown of
oil coming from the Persian Gulf. That's one quarter of all the oil
supplies in the world. Even if Iran never fires a missile, the
insurance industry will make it financially impossible for any
ship-owner to sail into the gulf.
So forget $80/barrel oil. Crude oil would quickly soar
past $100 a barrel, past $160 a barrel, probably. Some analysts have
even talked of $200 a barrel. No matter—after $100 a barrel, the world
economy would grind to a halt. And the American trade deficit would go
through the roof. We're not talking slowdown here,; we’re talking
global depression.
All this is clear,.
But it is also clear that the Congress doesn't have the guts and principle to halt this march to madness.
And so we just continue to watch the patient die.
|