Ron Paul: 23 percent
Mitt Romney: 20 percent
Newt Gingrich: 14 percent
Paul's base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest. Among voters under 45 he's at 33 percent to 16 percent for Romney and 11 percent for Gingrich. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24 percent of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters.
Note that if this result occurs, then it will be driven by the actions of roughly 8,400 people. Chris Cillizza at The Washington Post gives 100,000 as a rough expert consensus guesstimate of turnout. If 24 percent of those are Democrats and independents, that's 24,000 people. If 35 percent of those Democrats and independents support Paul at the caucus, that's 8,400 people.
Suppose that peace groups in Iowa decided to have a big peace demonstration in Des Moines. And suppose they were able to get 8,400 people to come. That would be a huge turnout. Such a turnout would likely cost many weeks of planning and negotiations, a zillion conference calls, lots of organizing time, and, of course, transportation and time costs to get everyone to Des Moines.
How much coverage would such a demonstration likely get in The New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN? Zero.
This peace demonstration requires no conference calls, no negotiations, no money, no organizing time. No one has to go to Des Moines who isn't already there; they just have to walk to their nearby caucus. All the logistics have been organized by someone else. Media coverage is guaranteed.
If these 8,400 people show up to the caucus to support Paul, they will be largely acting on their own initiative. It will be, as a German peace activist once put it, "the spontaneous self-activity of the masses."