Another Bloodbath in Lebanon?
“The Lebanese government has nearly doubled the size of its security forces in recent months by adding about 11,000 mostly Sunnis and Christian troops, and has armed them with weapons and vehicles donated by the UAE, a Sunni state.â€
(Lebanon Builds Up Security Forces, Megan Stack, LA Times)

When Hezbollah puts a million people on the streets of Beirut, it doesn’t appear on the front page of the New York Times. That spot is reserved for Bush’s “made-in-Washington†extravaganzas like the Cedar, Orange or Rose revolutions. Those bogus revolutions were cooked up in American think tanks and engineered by US NGOs; that’s why they got headline coverage in the Times. The Beirut demonstrations don’t promote the political agenda of the America’s ruling elite, so they’re stuck on page 8 where they’ll be ignored.
Some things never change.
But the demonstrations are an important part of the drama
which is currently unfolding in the region. They signal the shifting of
power away from Washington and Tel Aviv to a new Shiite-dominated
Middle East. The American-backed government of Fouad Siniora is the
next domino on the list which could fall in a matter of weeks. Time
appears to be running out for Siniora and there’s nothing Bush or
Olmert can do about it.
Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is moving Lebanon towards
"democratization" by demanding greater representation for the country’s
majority, the Shi’ites. So far, he’s decided to take the peaceful
route, but the massive protests are an impressive “show of force†that
could be a sign of things to come. If the situation deteriorates,
Hezbollah will do what is necessary to defend its people and its
interests. Siniora knows that Nasrallah has the power to bring down the
government or to plunge the country into civil war. So, it's all a
matter of who blinks first.
Ironically, Nasrallah’s tactics mirror those that were used during the
so-called Cedar Revolution which put Siniora in office and forced the
Syrian troops out of Lebanon. Now, the situation has reversed itself
and tens of thousands of mostly poor Shi’ites have set up camp in
Bierut’s main square, the Riad el Soloh, and are hunkering-down for the
long haul. There defiance is as much an indication of class struggle as
it is a rejection of the Siniora government.
Megan Stack of the LA
Times clarifies this point:
“Some of the poorest and most marginalized people in the country, Shiite Muslims, have abandoned their homes in suburban slums to camp out on the nation's priciest bit of real estate. Though they often have trudged through Lebanese history as war refugees, now they have managed to displace Lebanon's wealthiest shop owners. They also have surrounded Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, barricaded in his office.â€
“Class struggle†is a big part of the present confrontation. The media
has tried to emphasize the religious differences to promote their
theory of a “clash of civilizationsâ€; the ongoing struggle between
modernity and Arab reactionaries. It’s all the same gibberish Americans
read every day in op-ed columns by Tom Friedman, David Brooks or the
other neocon scribes.
The “clash of civilizations†theory is a great boon to those who would
like see war in the Middle East continue into perpetuity or at least
until every Arab country is broken up into little defenseless statlets.
But the truth is that the Shiites are mostly poor and underrepresented
and are entitled to a bigger place at the political table. Does that
mean they would have the right to “veto†legislation? (which seems to
be the main bone of contention)
Yes, of course, if they are in the majority, but that doesn’t imply
that the Lebanon is destined to become an Islamic theocracy. Nasrallah
has already dismissed the idea of an Iranian-type “Mullahocracyâ€, run
by Ayatollahs who strictly apply Sharia Law. Nasrallah is fiercely
nationalistic despite his clerical robes. His main objective is to
remove the US-Israeli agents, like Siniora, from the government and
reestablish Lebanese sovereignty. Remember, Siniora refused to even
deploy the Lebanese army to fight the Israelis when they invaded his
country and killed 1300 Lebanese nationals. For the hundreds of
thousands of victims in the south, there’s no doubt as to where
Siniora’s true loyalties lie.
Siniora is Washington’s man. In fact, he even kept the lines of
communication open with Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, while his
country was being bombed with American ordinance dropped from Israeli
planes. After the war he quickly reopened the US embassy even though
his country’s infrastructure was still in ruins from Israel’s 34 Day
rampage. He has been a great asset to US-Israeli plans to create a “New
Middle Eastâ€, but utterly useless for the great body of
poverty-stricken and homeless Lebanese civilians.
Michel Chossudovsky summarized the administration’s goals in Lebanon this way:
“Washington’s objective is to transform Lebanon into a US protectorate. The Lebanese people are demanding the resignation of a government which is acting on behalf of the US and Israeli invaders of their country. They are demanding the formation of a national unity government which will defend the Lebanese homeland against US-Israeli aggression.â€
Chossudovsky adds:
“The Beirut government is taking orders directly from the US embassy. The Siniora government has allowed the deployment of NATO forces on Lebanese territory under the pretext of UN-sponsored peace-keeping operation. NATO warships under German command are stationed off the country’s eastern Mediterranean coastline. NATO has a military cooperation agreement with Israel.†(“Mass Demonstrations against the US-backed Lebanese Government†Michel Chossudovsky; Global Research)
The US and Israel are working feverishly behind the scenes to
destabilize Lebanon as part of their broader plans for the entire
region. The assassination of Lebanese Industry Minister, Pierre Gemayel
can only be understood in this larger context. The assassination
strengthened the US-Israel position vis a vis Syria and increased the
likelihood of a confrontation between Hezbollah and government forces.
This is precisely what Israel wants. It allows Tel Aviv to stay
uninvolved while their 34 Day War resumes via their Lebanese proxies.
Megan Stack of the LA Times reports:
“The Lebanese government has nearly DOUBLED the size of its security forces in recent months by adding about 11,000 mostly Sunnis and Christian troops, and has armed them with weapons and vehicles donated by the UAE, a Sunni state.†(“Lebanon Builds Up Security Forces, LA Times)
"The dramatic increase in the Interior Ministry troops, including the creation of a controversial intelligence unit and the expansion of a commando force, is meant to counter the growing influence of Iran and Hezbollah, its Shiite ally in Lebanon… The quiet, speedy buildup indicates that Lebanon’s anti-Syria ruling majority, has been bracing for armed sectarian conflict since the withdrawal of Syrian forces in the spring of 2005. It also reflects growing tensions across the region between US-allied Sunnis Muslims who hold power in most Arab nations and the increasingly Shiite-ruled Iran and Hezbollah.†(LA Times)
The Siniora government has actually moved troops out of the army into
the Internal Security Forces (ISF). The implication is clear. Siniora
has no interest in defending his country from foreign (Israeli)
invasion; he’s simply getting ready to fight his own people. Clearly,
the weapons from the United Arab Emirates are being provided under
Bush’s authority to help Siniora in a future confrontation with
Hezbollah.
Mark Mackinnon of the Globe and Mail confirms much of what appeared in
the LA Times.
Mackinnon says,
“Since the Syrian army’s departure from Lebanon in early 2005, the US and France have been providing money and training to the Internal Security Forces (ISF). With the political situation souring further in recent weeks, the UAE stepped in to provide the unit with an emergency “gift†of thousands of rifles and dozens of police vehicles.†(“West helps Lebanon build Militia to fight Hezbollahâ€; Globe and Mail)
Even though Siniora’s troops have been armed and trained by western
powers, Israel is still not confident that they can prevail. In fact,
Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz reported:
“The mounting crisis threatening the Siniora government in Lebanon, and the specter of a Hezbollah takeover, have spurred senior Israeli government officials in Jerusalem to raise several proposals in recent days aimed at strengthening Siniora….(They are) increasingly concerned that Siniora’s government will fall, resulting in a Hezbollah takeover that would turn the country into what an Israeli government official source termed ‘the first Arab state to become an Iranian protectorate’â€.
But Israeli fears may be unwarranted. While Hezbollah receives military
assistance from Iran, it certainly does not compare to the high-tech
weaponry and foreign aid that Israel gets from the US. Nor is there any
indication that Hezbollah is merely a puppet of the Iranian Mullahs.
This is just more baseless scaremongering. In fact, a strong
nationalist government in Beirut could serve to stabilize the region by
developing a more credible deterrent to Israeli aggression. (Israel has
invaded Lebanon 4 times in 25 years) That might undermine Israel’s
regional ambitions but, it would be infinitely better for the Israeli
citizens who simply want peace and security.
Nevertheless, Israel is preparing for any eventuality; especially since
it is unlikely that Bush will be able to commit any American troops if
war breaks out. Ha’aretz summarized the somber mood of the Israeli
high-command in an editorial earlier in the week:
“The army’s conclusion is that a war in the near future is a reasonable possibility. As Amir Oren reported several weeks ago, the IDF’s operative assumption is that during the coming summer months, a war will break out against Hezbollah and perhaps against Syria as well.â€
But there is room for optimism. By summer, the Bush administration
should be winding down in Iraq. This is bound to have a profound effect
on the entire region. Israel will be less likely to restart its war
with Lebanon if the administration is engaged in fragile negotiations
with the neighboring states. And, who knows; a phased withdrawal of
troops in Iraq might force a compromise in the Israel-Palestine
standoff? (Olmert has already begun talking to Saudi Arabia about a
comprehensive peace plan modeled on the Road Map)
So far, only one thing seems certain; that US-Israeli influence will
steadily decline just as Shiite power continues to rise. Another
bloodbath in Lebanon won’t change that reality.